...few church leaders I know engage in intentional strategic foresight. Apart from next year’s schedule and budget or a quick look ahead three to five years – especially if there is a capital project planned – we really don’t prepare for the future. We rarely think about how emergent realities could redefine the future and affect our local congregations or the Church at large. In fact, typically our thinking about future events deals solely with Bible prophecy, eschatology. We have some theological understanding and beliefs about how the ‘end times’ will unfold, but we don’t seem to think much about what will happen between now and then. For the most part, we are still operating with the mentality that, although things will change some, our methodologies, programs, and events don’t need to be altered much in order for our message to be heard, received, and understood.
What if things change so dramatically that we become irrelevant because the approaches we use to communicate our message are so out-of-date the intended audience ignores us or never finds us? Consider this scenario that could take place in 2050:
Hans is a high-tech genius working in New York City. He is seeking ‘someone’ with whom to share his life and spiritual journey. Raised in rural Denmark, his passion for technology was fueled while being cared for by JM2, his family’s nanny. Although JM2 is an android – robot, ‘her’ level of artificial intelligence, appearance, emotional responses, and mannerisms are of the highest level and she blends seamlessly into any crowd of humans.
Because of his upbringing, he chooses LIZ, an artificial intelligent life form to be his companion; one who he believes will meet his high expectations. With all the functionality and appearance of a human, ‘she’ has cognitive and reasoning capabilities and meet s all his physical, social, emotional, and sexual needs. Because of advancements in technology, she can even carry and give birth to his artificially inseminated child, although she is physically unable to reproduce.
During his search for spiritual significance, his retinal implant – capable of internet interaction and holographic projection for virtual experience – links to a local evangelical Christian web site. The content intrigues him and he enters the virtual church service with LIZ. Following the service, Hans and LIZ discuss the ‘invitation to have a personal connection with God through a relationship with Jesus’ and determine this is something ‘they’ want. They discuss this with the ‘virtual pastor’ who, unaware of LIZ’s real identity, helps them realize their need of Jesus and guides them into making a decision to serve God.[1]
Farfetched? Maybe . . . maybe not. Consider that before the 1960s we never imagined anyone walking on the moon, yet the United States accomplished this extraordinary feat in 1969. We never considered the possibility of remote cordless phones; they were only someone’s imagination in science fiction stories. Yet cellular technology and satellite phones enable communication from and to anywhere in the world. Remember when the Commodore 64’s computer memory was espoused as ‘more than we would ever need’ in a personal computer? What about the first personal IBM or Apple computer? Now there is more memory, technology, and sophistication in toys we play with or those we purchase for our children and grandchildren.
So just imagine what the world will look like in 2050. The world is changing much more rapidly than when our parents or grandparents were actively in the workplace. It likely will continue to change at an ever-increasing rate for the generations to come. Even our planet seems much smaller now with the ease of world travel and the internet. What will it look like just twenty years from now? And what events will take place to reshape the presentation of the gospel or the way we ‘gather to worship?’ Will we still meet in physical facilities? Will technology become so advanced that we will be addressing the Hans and LIZ scenario; and how will the Church respond?[2] The flannel-graphs used in the50s and 60s don’t seem too applicable any more, do they? So why do we believe the methodologies used today will still be effective for future generations?
Consider the socio-demographic shift currently taking place in the U.S. It is estimated that there are now over 43 million Hispanics in the U.S. but that by the year 2020, there will be more than 102.4 million (24% of the entire U.S. population).Has the church even begun to adequately address this? As Christian leaders, we must be thinking and planning further out than one, two or five years. We need to take a look at events that have happened, those now happening, and consider what could happen in the future. How will we be prepared if and when they occur? Strategic foresight and futures planning must be an integral part of our activities.
We readily admit the future is not predictable and, for the most part, not predetermined. However, often we do project ourselves into the future to imagine its possibilities. These options then influence our decisions so that the outcome we prefer has a ‘chance’ of happening. Engaging in strategic foresight is a natural occurrence many of us overlook. For example, as I drive in a familiar area, I constantly consider the volume of traffic, the weather, and how many traffic lights I will encounter on the different routes to my destination. With this information, I consider all my possible options, strategically plan my route, begin the journey, and make adjustments as needed. This is a simple example of a forward-looking strategy, strategic foresight. It does not guarantee a specific outcome but it increases the probability that I will reach my destination more quickly.
So, what is this all about, futures studies - strategic foresight? Futures studies is a trans-disciplinary, systems-science-based approach that involves analyzing patterns of change in the past, identifying trends of change in the present, and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future in order to help us create the futures we most desire.
[1] Raimo, Steve W. 2008; Beyond the Cyber-Church. Christian Futures Network. Publi
Dr. Raimo has over thirty years of organizational leadership and management experience in the U.S. and over-seas with multi-national corporations, small business, government, and non-profit organizations. An ordained minister with an undergraduate degree in accounting, masters in business administration, and a doctorate in strategic leadership (from the School of Global Leadership and Entrepreneurship at Regent University), he has served congregations in vocational and non-vocational ministry since 1976. As such, he brings a distinctively unique perspective and expertise to the subject of church organization and leadership.
Dr. Raimo is not only dedicated as a servant to Christ and His church, he also is committed to his wife and children. He has been married to Judy since 1974 and has two grown married children and one grandchild.